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Thursday at the Table - The Cornered Animal: Why Gas Won’t Come Down

By Jeff Bingham, President

I was with Jake the other day while he filled up his car, and we got to talking about something you’ve probably noticed yourself. I thought this was supposed to be getting better. You hear the news, oil’s flowing again, maybe a deal coming, and then the tank fills up and it’s the same sting it’s been. It doesn’t add up, and you’re not wrong to feel that way. So let me tell you what I’ve come to understand about it, because it’s not what the headlines would have you think.

Here’s the thing most folks never hear. Iran has been squeezed about dry on its oil. The money that kept them going just isn’t coming in like it used to, and they don’t have China buying on the side to make up for it. On its face that sounds like good news, and in a way it is. A cornered Iran is an Iran that’s closer to the table, closer to a deal.

But here’s the other side of that same coin, and it’s the part that keeps the price up. A cornered, half starved animal is more dangerous than a fat and comfortable one, not less. It’s got nothing left to lose. Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, stirring up trouble in the Red Sea, that costs them almost nothing now. And here’s what ties it back to your tank. Their oil is already out there and sold, so there’s nothing held back. Lose one more supplier and the price doesn’t tick up, it jumps.

So both things are true at the same time. We’re closer to a deal, and the danger is higher. The wounded animal is most dangerous right before the end.

So next time you’re at the pump wondering why the number won’t come down, you’ll know. It isn’t that nobody’s producing oil. It’s that there’s no cushion right now, and a cornered player with nothing to lose is sitting on the one spot that could send prices climbing. Good news and bad news in the same breath.

And here’s what I’d leave you with. You don’t have to be at the mercy of that pump, or the headlines, or whatever happens next week. That’s what the table is for. We plan so your retirement doesn’t rise and fall on the next thing out there. That’s what lets you sleep at night.

Keep the Faith. God Bless America.

Jeff

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